With the rise of dengue cases especially among children, a Philippine Council for Health Research and Development (PCHRD)-supported study offers a predictive model that estimates mosquito density in public elementary and high schools in the Philippines even without active vector surveillance.

The School-based Mosquito Abundance Model (SMAM) study employs a climate-driven model which forecasts the trends of the ovitrap index (OI), an effective mosquito surveillance tool, in schools located across the four climates types of the country.

The study is led by Prof. Lilian De Las Llgas and Prof. Lisa Grace S. Bersales of University of the Philippines Manila (UPM).

“School-based Mosquito Abundnce Prediction Model for Mosquito Density” session during PCHRD 34th Anniversary

“We are offering this model as a science-based contribution to the dengue control efforts. The results will be an important prediction for dengue cases and eventually for outbreak prevention,” Prof. De Las Llagas explained.

According to the researchers, SMAM aims to address the challenges and realities in the country with regard to the sustained transmission of dengue virus such as inefficient prevention and control measures and ineffective pest surveillance. The ovitrap system and the OI best reflect and illustrate the interrelationships of the predictor variables and their response to climate and non-climate influences, they added.

The study already collected data from July 2015 to February 2016, and will continue up to the second quarter of 2016 to complete a 12-month data for prediction.

“SMAM serves as an early warning device to prompt the communities to do an aggressive mosquito search and destroy activities because their school is at risk of having dengue transmission,” said Prof. De Las Llagas and Prof. Bersales.

At the end of the project, a DOST website will be launched to show areas with high mosquito density for dengue outbreaks prevention.